Why petrol prices keep changing now that the subsidy is gone

For decades, the petrol price in Nigeria was a government decision. The price on the pump was fixed, and when the real cost of fuel went above it, government paid the difference. That payment was the subsidy.

On 29 May 2023, in his inauguration speech, President Bola Tinubu said the subsidy was gone. From then on, the pump price was free to follow the actual cost of getting petrol to your tank. That is why it now moves, sometimes more than once a month.

So what is that cost made of? Five things.

1. The world oil price

Petrol is made from crude oil, and crude is priced in dollars on world markets. The benchmark most people quote is Brent. On 30 October 2026, the January Brent contract settled at $113.43 a barrel, after attacks on Saudi Arabia raised fears about supply.

When Brent rises, crude costs refiners more, and imported petrol costs importers more. Both feed into the pump price. Nigeria producing its own oil does not shield drivers, because local refiners buy crude at or near world prices.

2. The naira exchange rate

Because oil is priced in dollars, the naira matters as much as the oil price. On 30 October 2026, the official market closed at ₦1,346 to the dollar.

Think of it this way. If oil stays the same in dollars but the naira weakens, a litre of petrol still costs more naira. The opposite is also true: a stronger naira can pull pump prices down even when oil does not move.

3. Refinery and depot prices

Petrol now reaches stations from two main places: the Dangote refinery in Lagos, and imports. Dangote has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, and NNPC began lifting petrol from it for sale in September 2024.

Refineries and depots sell to marketers at what is called the gantry price, the price to load a truck. When Dangote or the big depots change that price, stations usually follow. Reports in late October 2026 did not agree on Dangote's exact gantry price, which is a reminder that these figures move quickly and are not always published in one place.

4. Getting it to the station

A truck has to carry the petrol from the depot to the station, and diesel, tyres, drivers and road conditions all cost money. That is one reason petrol is usually cheaper in Lagos, near the refinery and the ports, than in towns far from them.

The National Bureau of Statistics surveys every state each month. Its May 2026 survey put the national average at ₦1,596.25 a litre, higher than what big stations in Lagos and Abuja were charging, because the average includes places where fuel travels a long way.

5. The station's margin

Finally, the station adds its own costs and profit. That is why two stations on the same road can sell at different prices. In a check on 11 October 2026, NNPC Retail and MRS stations in Abuja both sold at ₦1,405 a litre, while Lagos stations ranged from ₦1,350 to ₦1,400.

What this means for you

• Prices will keep moving. Without a subsidy, there is no fixed price to return to. Changes are now normal, in both directions.
• Shop around. Station prices in the same city can differ by tens of naira a litre, and some retailers offer app or loyalty discounts.
• Watch the drivers, not the rumours. If Brent and the naira are steady, a sudden large jump is less likely to last.

We publish the latest figures, with dates and sources, on our market figures page.